Prices of apartments in master developments such as Dubai Silicon Oasis, International City and Discovery Gardens have stabilised in the past three months, making them "affordable" for middle income earners in the emirate, according to real estate agents.
"The most affordable areas in the emirate are Dubai Silicon Oasis, International City and Discovery Gardens, where prices have levelled off in the past three months," said Vineet Kumar, Head of Sales-Dubai, Asteco Property Management.
According to Gowealthy. com, apartments in affordable housing projects have recorded a marginal drop of about five to 10 per cent in the past quarter. In International City prices for a studio, one-bedroom and two-bedroom apartments were about Dh290,000, Dh475,000 and Dh578,000, respectively, during the first quarter of 2009. The current prices for these properties stand at Dh275,000, Dh450,000 and Dh550,000, respectively, reflecting a decline of roughly five per cent since the past quarter, said Parvees Gafur, Executive Vice-President for International Sales, Gowealthy.com.
Prices stabilising
Mohanad Alwadiya, Director, Harbor Real Estate, said prices in affordable housing are now stabilising but there is an increasing demand.
"In Motor City, the residential apartment prices were about Dh900 a square foot in the second quarter of 2008 and is now about Dh600 per square foot. In International City, the average price per square foot has dropped from Dh830 in the second quarter of 2008 to Dh600 in the second quarter of 2009. In Discovery Gardens prices were Dh1,050 per square foot in the second quarter of 2008 and are now about Dh650 per square foot," he added.
From a rental perspective, Rose-Marie Kilzi, Leasing and Resale Director at Great Properties, said Discovery Gardens, International City and Springs villas continue to offer the cheapest rental rates in Dubai.
"A one-bedroom apartment in Discovery Gardens is currently in the range of Dh55,000 to Dh65,000 per annum. For a two-bedroom villa, the Springs is the cheapest rental property going for Dh100,000 per annum upwards. The rents have stabilised over the past three months," she said.
According to realtors, mortgages are easier to find for affordable housing units with banks generally lending at around 75 to 80 per cent loan-to-value ratio (LTV).
Alwadiya said most banks are offering mortgages on finished properties or those that will be ready within the next 45 days. The LTV ratio is still hovering around 75 per cent on average at an interest rate ranging between nine to 11 per cent, he said.
"Some banks are even offering mortgages on some off-plan projects," he added.
Asteco said mortgage availability on finished properties hovered around 75 to 80 per cent of the assessed value of the property.
"Four banks are very actively providing mortgages including HSBC, Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank, Dubai Islamic Bank and RakBank," said Kumar.
No oversupply risk
Analysts said people with incomes starting from Dh20,000 per month upwards were able to buy affordable housing in Dubai. They all said there was no risk of affordable housing becoming oversupplied in the market due to demand not yet picking up very strongly and the fact that a number of properties are yet to come into the market.
Kumar said: "Affordable housing supply is limited. The market has more projects on going, which are mid-market to luxury. The only affordable projects built so far are International City and Discovery Gardens. What has happened with the correction is that a lot of the finished projects have now become affordable and end users are taking advantage of this correction."
Alwadiya said: "We are witnessing an earlier than expected recovery signs in the market today that will help enhance and boost the demand on property. Affordable projects will benefit first and most during the early recovery stages, which will ease the pressure on the supply of such projects."
Gafur believes supplies are not pouring into the market as expected or predicted earlier last year.
Also, considering existing units and their expected delivery dates, it is still not enough to meet the entire demand for affordable housing from both a sales and rental perspective.
"Current demand levels may seem a bit lean due to various factors such as summer holidays, price drop expectations etc. But the latent demand for affordable housing is still quite strong and it is just a matter of time and initiation of positive factors such as increased lending before the demand levels show a visible upward trend again," he added.
Demand picking up
According to agents, demand for affordable projects is picking up as buyers are continually seeking to take advantage of the low prices.
"Demand on affordable residential assets is exceeding demand on affordable offices. This is mainly driven by the fact that the number of ready affordable residential projects exceeds the number of ready affordable office projects today," said Alwadiya.
Kumar said the demand for affordable residential units was higher than affordable commercial properties in Dubai.
"Demand is for locations that are established in terms of infrastructure and buyers prefer to be closer to such areas. It is difficult to put a number but the market sentiment is high for affordable housing projects," he added.
Since affordable housing developments have so far been attracting bachelors/ single families, the developments are not fully equipped with community facilities and amenities, said Gafur.
"The developments are not fully geared to provide all the support elements such as groceries and other shops. Once these services are up and running fully, a wider and general audience will consider buying into these properties and drive demand levels much further."
No major defaults
Analysts said there were no defaults arising in the affordable housing sector.
Alwadiya said: "The rate of influx of population to the emirate still exceeds the rate of departures and if we examine the profiles of the inflowing and outflowing population, we will notice that most of the departures were from the blue collar population who were forced to leave because of the slowdown in the construction sector. On the other hand, the influx has been fuelled by white collar or investor population."
Gafur said: "We have not noticed major defaults on payments across the affordable housing sector mainly because the developers have started to adopt flexible payment schedules."
"The initial panic mode that did prompt a few from even the affordable housing sector to relinquish their investments has stopped now. Current defaults are few and far between, with buyers understanding the medium- to long-term positive ramifications of property investments. Investors and homeowners having repayment-related issues also have the option to work out relaxed payment plans through developers or mortgage providers, thereby reducing default risk even further."
According to Kumar, in the early days of freehold property, the affordable real estate was bought mostly by investors who retained it for rental return or capital appreciation.
"Even though rents have corrected, first buyers of these projects enjoy a fair return on their investment. These products are always preferred by investors as well as end users and now that the market has been regulated, more end users will come forward to buy affordable housing projects," he said.
Kilzi said buyers of affordable units are the ones most affected by the economic crisis as they were the ones intending on staying long-term and relying on their monthly income to cover their mortgage.
Careful with agreements
Analysts said the current economic crisis has taught buyers to become more careful when it comes to reviewing their sales and purchase agreements.
"Compared to the earlier days of property sales, sales and purchase agreements have come a long way in terms of transparency. Reputed developers providing housing solutions within both the affordable and high-end sectors have placed a lot of emphasis on their sales and purchase agreement documentation policies, especially since the emergence of local authorities such as the Real Estate Regulatory Agency. There are further improvements that still need to be made in order to achieve the effectiveness and transparencies seen in the developed markets. That will happen as the market evolves and grows, and there are many instances of this taking place currently," said Gafur.
Kilzi added: "Most real estate developers have become aware of the market situation today and have learned that transparency is the best policy. With many having to agree to lower prices and give discounts and compensations to prevent people from defaulting, it is more apparent recently that transparency in communication as well as in purchase agreements has become a critical need."
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